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BOYD GAMING CORP (BYD)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Solid quarter with top-line and adjusted profitability growth despite weather and calendar headwinds: revenue $991.6M vs $960.5M YoY; Adjusted EBITDAR $337.5M vs $330.5M YoY; Adjusted EPS $1.62 vs $1.51 YoY . Property-level margins held ~40% per management, with margins flattered by excluding online tax pass-through .
  • Broad-based operating stability: Las Vegas Locals ex-Orleans modest growth with >50% margins; Downtown improved on Hawaiian visitation; Midwest & South grew despite 28% more weather-impacted days; Online and Managed & Other strong .
  • Capital returns and balance sheet discipline: $328M buybacks in Q1; dividend raised to $0.18; leverage ~2.8x (lease-adjusted ~3.2x); management stays committed to $100M/quarter buybacks but will be conservative above baseline given macro uncertainty .
  • Near-term catalysts/risks: stable April trends; weather impact ~$5M in Q1; Belterra closures in April from flooding; summer construction disruption (Suncoast renovations) likely modest and timed for seasonality; tariff risk mitigation in place for projects (Virginia, St. Charles, Cadence) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Resilient core customer and margin discipline: “core customers continue to grow” company-wide; property-level margins ~40%; excluding online tax pass-through, company-wide margins would be 520 bps higher for Q1 .
  • Downtown and Midwest & South outperformed despite headwinds: Downtown gained on Hawaiian visitation; Midwest & South grew in revenue and EBITDAR even with severe weather and leap year comps .
  • Capital returns and pipeline: $328M repurchased; dividend to $0.18; robust pipeline including Ameristar St. Charles expansion (fall 2025), Cadence Crossing (mid-2026), Norfolk VA ($750M, temp opening Nov 2025) .

What Went Wrong

  • Competitive pressure at the Orleans persisted (though narrowing), impacting Las Vegas Locals EBITDA (<4% down at Orleans); I-15/Tropicana interchange still constraining access .
  • Weather disrupted Midwest & South with a ~$5M EBITDA hit; Belterra properties closed for several days due to flooding in April .
  • GAAP EPS pressured by non-cash impairments: $32.3M impairment in Q1 drove diluted EPS to $1.31 vs Adjusted EPS $1.62 .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)$961.2 $1,040.9 $991.6
Net Income ($M)$131.1 $170.5 $111.4
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$1.43 $1.92 $1.31
Adjusted EPS (Non-GAAP)$1.52 $1.96 $1.62
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$308.5 $351.1 $309.4
Adjusted EBITDAR ($M)$336.6 $379.3 $337.5

Estimates vs Actual (Q1 2025)

  • Revenue: Consensus $972.6M* vs Actual $991.6M — beat .
  • Adjusted EPS: Consensus $1.52* vs Actual $1.62 — beat .
  • EBITDA (S&P’s EBITDA definition): Consensus $300.6M* vs Actual $300.4M* — in line.
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Revenues ($M)

SegmentQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Las Vegas Locals$211.9 $232.0 $222.8
Downtown Las Vegas$53.3 $65.6 $57.3
Midwest & South$522.4 $518.5 $504.6
Online$141.3 $188.8 $169.6
Managed & Other$32.4 $36.1 $37.3
Total$961.2 $1,040.9 $991.6

KPIs and Other Items

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Share Repurchases ($M)$202 $203 $328
Dividend per share$0.17 (paid Oct 15) $0.17 (paid Jan 15) $0.18 (paid Apr 15)
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($M)$286.3 (9/30) $316.7 (12/31) $311.5 (3/31)
Total Debt ($B)$3.1 (9/30) $3.2 (12/31) $3.5 (3/31)
Leverage (Total / Lease-Adj.)2.5x / 2.9x 2.5x / 2.9x ~2.8x / ~3.2x
Online tax pass-through ($M)$103 $128 Q4; $450 FY $130
Capex ($M)$85 (quarter) $111 (Q4); $400 FY $127 (quarter)

Notes: Property-level operating margins ~40% per management commentary .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance/CommentaryChange
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025$600–$650M (Q4 call) $600–$650M reiterated (Q1 call commentary) Maintained
Share RepurchasesOngoingBaseline $100M/quarter (Q4 call) Maintain $100M/quarter; conservative above baseline given uncertainty Maintained with cautious tone
DividendOngoing$0.17/quarter (Q4) Increased to $0.18/quarter (Feb 20) Raised
Managed & Other EBITDARFY 2025~Flat YoY (Q4 call) Still strong; growth constrained by capacity until Phase 1 expansion in 2026 Maintained outlook
Online EBITDAR (Run-rate)FY 2025~$80–$85M (Q4 call) Stable trajectory; strong Online growth in Q1; no update to full-year range Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Trend
Las Vegas Locals competition (Orleans)Ongoing competitive pressure; ex-Orleans margins 49% Expect stability in H2’25 as comps normalize Pressure persisted but narrowed; I-15/Trop interchange still a headwind Gradual improvement; infrastructure headwind easing later 2025
Consumer mix: core vs retailStable; play volumes essentially flat YoY (ex-weather) Core growing; retail stabilizing, still negative in LV Core growing; retail steady; April trends consistent Stable to improving core; retail steady
Weather impacts—Noted prior impacts; Jan 2025 weather similar to prior year ~$5M EBITDA hit Q1; 28% more weather-impacted days One-off headwind; normalizing by late March/April
Online & FanDuelRaised 2024 run-rate to $75M; market-access one-timers 2025 outlook $80–$85M; NFL hold impacted but offset Strong Q1 Online growth; tax pass-through noted Steady growth; structural value from 5% FanDuel stake
Capex pipelineTreasure Chest/Fremont returns highlighted 2025 Capex detail; projects: St. Charles, Cadence, Norfolk Execution continues; projects on track; tariff mitigation in place On-schedule; risk-managed
Tariffs/macro——Supply chain/tariff risks mitigated; budgets intact Managed risk
M&A appetite—Disciplined, leverage flexible if path to de-lever Unchanged appetite; recent volatility doesn’t alter stance Opportunistic, disciplined

Management Commentary

  • “We achieved revenue and Adjusted EBITDAR growth…maintaining property operating margins of 40%…considering the impact of severe weather…as well as difficult comparisons to Leap Year.” — CEO Keith Smith .
  • “Through the first 3 weeks of April, customer trends have remained consistent with March.” — CEO Keith Smith .
  • “We repurchased $328 million in stock…we remain committed to $100 million per quarter…will be much more conservative in buybacks above that level.” — CFO Josh Hirsberg .
  • “We estimated [weather] to be about $5 million for the quarter.” — CFO Josh Hirsberg .
  • “We have taken steps to mitigate the potential tariff impacts…we feel very comfortable…our budgets would [not] have to change.” — CFO Josh Hirsberg .

Q&A Highlights

  • Capital returns: Q1 repurchase timing was opportunistic; going forward management prioritizes maintaining a strong balance sheet and staying at least at the $100M/quarter baseline; cautious above that given uncertainty .
  • Project risk management: Detailed tariff/sourcing mitigation; some items pre-purchased; domestic steel for Virginia; budgets intact .
  • Weather quantification and April outlook: ~$5M weather headwind; April trends consistent with March across segments .
  • Las Vegas Locals competition: Promotional environment broadly stable; Orleans market share losses narrowed; interchange project still a drag near-term .
  • Development pipeline: Par-A-Dice replacement under design; Treasure Chest ramp exceeded expectations but not a template for Illinois; Norfolk temp facility targeted breakeven; permanent resort late 2027 .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 beats: Revenue $991.6M vs $972.6M consensus*; Adjusted EPS $1.62 vs $1.52 consensus* . EBITDA (S&P definition) essentially in line: $300.4M* actual vs $300.6M* consensus. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Potential estimate revisions: Stable April trends, resilient core customer and segment growth (Downtown, Online, Managed) provide support; however, management’s conservative buyback stance above baseline and localized Vegas competition at Orleans may temper near-term EPS uplift assumptions .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution amidst headwinds: BYD delivered revenue and Adjusted EBITDAR growth with property-level margins ~40% despite weather and calendar effects; core customer remains solid .
  • Quality beat: Clear beats on revenue and adjusted EPS vs consensus; in-line EBITDA on S&P’s definition; solid start to Q2 with stable April trends supports momentum* . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Capital allocation remains shareholder-friendly yet prudent: Dividend raised; repurchases continue at $100M/quarter baseline with flexibility above that if conditions warrant; leverage remains comfortable .
  • Pipeline provides medium-term growth: St. Charles expansion (fall 2025), Norfolk (temp Nov 2025; permanent late 2027), Cadence Crossing (mid-2026); returns underpinned by proven project discipline (e.g., Treasure Chest) .
  • Watch local factors: Orleans competitive pressure and I-15/Tropicana interchange continue to weigh on one LVL asset but are narrowing/temporary; renovations (Suncoast) timed for slower period to minimize disruption .
  • Risk management in focus: Tariff and supply chain exposures actively mitigated; capex budgets intact; weather is a recurring seasonal factor, but trendlines normalized late March/April .
  • Trading setup: Positive narrative (beats, stable trends, capital returns) vs localized competitive/infrastructure headwinds and macro caution on buybacks above baseline; catalysts include summer/fall project milestones and signs of continued stability in retail segment .

Footnotes:

  • Non-GAAP measures (Adjusted EBITDA/EBITDAR, Adjusted EPS) defined and reconciled in company materials .
  • Estimates marked with * are Values retrieved from S&P Global.